Minimum attempts, averages and chance budgets
Start from the quantity you want. Round it up to whole successful batches, then decide how many attempts you are willing to fund. Each attempt spends its materials and its Yang before the outcome is known. The minimum count is only those successful batches. The average is successful batches divided by the chance, and it describes a long run of crafts. A chance budget is the smallest larger count whose probability of enough successes reaches 80%, 90%, 95% or 99%. That figure is the chance of having enough successes. A per-attempt chance under 100% keeps it under certainty.
The worked examples below are the exchanges the crafting materials planner calculates. Another edition of the game can change a fee or a chance. When the server you play disagrees with a figure here, follow that server.
| Figure | What you are counting |
|---|---|
| Minimum attempts | Successful batches required by the quantity |
| Average attempts | Successful batches divided by the chance per attempt |
| Chance budget | Smallest attempt count that reaches 80%, 90%, 95% or 99% |
Whole batches: Kaki Blossom Juice
Kaki Blossom Juice is exchanged by Baek-Go, Huahn-So, Yu-Hwan. Each of them takes 1 Kaki Blossom and returns 100 juices. The chance is 100% and the fee is 0 Yang, so a failed attempt never enters this plan. A second item shares that English name: Kaki Blossom. This exchange accepts only the first of those two pages.
Ask for 101 juices and the plan needs 2 successes, because each success returns 100. Those successes produce 200 juices. There is no partial batch for the odd juice. With none of the accepted blossom owned, you bring 2 of them. With 1 owned, 1 is still missing. The Yang for that plan stays 0.
Two batches make 200 juices. One blossom owned leaves one to gather.
Plan 101 juicesFailed attempts: Rune Sword ingredients and Yang
Rune Sword +0 is made by Jae-Seon Kim. Every method takes one Battle Sword, 10 Ruby Engraving Knife and 10 Emerald Decoration, and charges 100,000 Yang. The sword you hand over sets the chance, from 5% to 50%. One success returns one sword.
The materials and the Yang are taken before the outcome. A failure returns no sword and no refund. If the sword appears before you have used the whole budget, stop. The budget is the pile you may have to fund, and the attempts you no longer need stay in your bags.
For one Rune Sword +0 the minimum is 1 attempt on every method. That attempt costs 100,000 Yang plus one sword and the gems, and it succeeds at the method's own chance. One try at 5% is a 5% chance of walking away with the sword.
One attempt spends one sword, ten of each material and 100,000 Yang. Its chance is only 5%.
Plan one attemptThe average on the 5% method is 20 attempts, or 2,000,000 Yang in fees on average across many runs. Funding only those 20 attempts leaves a 64.15% chance of at least one success. The mean and that chance answer different questions.
The 95% column is the smallest count with at least a 95% chance of one success. On the 5% method that is 59 attempts: 59 Battle Sword+5, 590 Ruby Engraving Knife, 590 Emerald Decoration, and 5,900,000 Yang. The chance at that count is 95.15%. On the 50% method, 5 attempts reach 96.875%: 5 Battle Sword+9, 50 of each gem, and 500,000 Yang. A chance under 100% never becomes certain in a finite number of tries, so 100% is not a budget you can buy.
The 5% method needs 59 attempts to exceed a 95% chance of one sword.
Plan the 95% budget| Sword you provide | Chance | Average attempts | Attempts for 95% | Yang for that budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battle Sword+5 | 5% | 20 | 59 | 5,900,000 |
| Battle Sword+6 | 10% | 10 | 29 | 2,900,000 |
| Battle Sword+7 | 30% | 3.33… | 9 | 900,000 |
| Battle Sword+8 | 40% | 2.5 | 6 | 600,000 |
| Battle Sword+9 | 50% | 2 | 5 | 500,000 |
The same 5% method takes 32 attempts to reach 80%, 45 to reach 90%, and 90 to reach 99%. Choose the budget from how much a miss costs you, then read the chance that count actually reaches. A larger budget sets aside more swords, gems and Yang for a higher chance.
The 50% method reaches 96.875% in five attempts. Compare the swords required, not only the Yang.
Compare the 50% methodSubtract your stock, then compare methods
Owned stock changes materials and leaves the fee alone. Hold 10 Ruby Engraving Knife against the 5% plan and 580 of 590 are still missing. The Yang stays 5,900,000. One Battle Sword+5 covers the minimum attempt and leaves 58 swords still missing on the 95% plan. Compare methods by the sword you can spare: Battle Sword+9 at 50% needs 5 attempts for a 95% chance, at the same NPC, the same gems per attempt and the same 100,000 Yang fee.
Two swords, thirty knives and twenty decorations owned leave three swords, twenty knives and thirty decorations to find.
Plan with owned materialsBlacksmith upgrades are a different ladder, with a fee on each + level. That ladder is shown in the upgrade planner. Crafting at these NPCs spends the materials listed here on every attempt, whether the item appears or the attempt fails.
Plan Kaki Blossom JuicePlan Rune Sword +0Ruby Engraving Knife dropsThe required Kaki Blossom
Keep and share your crafting plan
Valid edits save automatically in this browser. Reopening the planner restores your last draft. Each example opens the recipe, quantity, chance budget and stock shown here without changing that draft; editing the example then saves it as your new draft. Share link copies the current plan for another browser. If saving fails, keep the link to preserve your inputs.